OUTCOME 1: STUDIES

Increased Common Understanding and Application of Evidence-Based Knowledge by Policy Makers and Project Planners

INDICATORS:

• Evidence of national and regional decisions made based on or referring to MRC knowledge products • Number of national and regional agencies and organisations using MRC knowledge generated for research, planning and policy making

HIGHLIGHTS The completion of the 2018 SOBR, a flagship product of the organization and an integral part of its strategic planning cycle, and the Council Study in 2017 represent achievements of the MRC in closing key knowledge gaps, establishing a common understanding among the MCs of the environmental and socio-economic conditions and trends in the Basin brought by development pressures and the changing climate, and in informing and influencing national and regional planning and decision-making. The resulting body of knowledge, which includes potential benefits and adverse impacts of current and future development plans of the Mekong countries in six water-related sectors (hydropower, land use, irrigation, navigation, flood protection and industry), enables the MC policymakers and project planners to make informed decisions in support of an economically prosperous, socially just, and environmentally sound Mekong River Basin. Together with the completion of the new MRB-IF, a comprehensive and consistent set of indicators for assessing the Mekong Basin’s status in the environmental, social and economic, climate change, and cooperation dimensions, the MRC is in a better position to steer MCs’ regional cooperation and national development efforts following a comprehensive, evidence-driven and replicable approach. At the regional level, the findings and recommendations of the Council Study and other studies were incorporated in the update and development of regional strategies such as the SHDS and the SBEM and have been referred to in key MRC activities such as the PNPCA project assessment. The 2018 SOBR and other studies provided the new knowledge base to prepare the BDS 2021–2030 and the MRC SP 2021–2025. At the national level, knowledge and understanding have increased. Given the time available, evidence of their use for national planning and decision-making are expected. Early examples of national applications include the use of MRC data and studies in the preparation of sub-river basin management plans in Lao PDR and the ongoing monitoring by the TNMC Impact Study

The Council Study The completion of the Council Study represents a significant achievement of the MRC. This is true not only in closing the key knowledge gaps, but also in updating the knowledge regarding the potential economic, environmental and socio-economic impacts, positive and negative, of current and potential future development plans of the Mekong countries in six water-related sectors – hydropower, land use, irrigation, navigation, flood protection and industry – under several climate change scenarios. See the key findings of the Council Study here: http://interactive.mrcmekong.org/council-study-findings/potential-benefits-and-adverse-impacts/ State of the Basin Report An MRC flagship product, the SOBR reflects the aims and commitments laid out in the 1995 Mekong Agreement. It also serves as a tool to determine progress towards achieving these aims and to identify issues and development opportunities that the MCs need to consider when making corrective actions and updating the BDS for the next planning cycle. The 2018 SOBR represents the most up-to-date and comprehensive understanding of the state of the Mekong Basin in terms of its ecological health, and the social and economic circumstances of the Mekong countries and its people, and the degree to which cooperation between riparian countries envisaged under the 1995 Mekong Agreement is enhancing these conditions. The 2018 SOBR includes a review of conditions within the Upper Mekong Basin, known as the Lancang Basin in China.

Figure 8. The 2018 State of the Basin Report and associated studies contribute towards a comprehensive body of knowledge to support better informed basin planning and decision-making

Study on irrigation impacts Irrigation is by far the biggest water consumptive sector in the Basin. Sub-optimal planning and implementation of irrigation projects combined with the uncertainties imposed by climate change may therefore result in negative transboundary impacts on water availability and the environment. In addition to assessing the impacts of irrigation projects, the study also includes the potential for groundwater development and management for production. The agricultural land use monitoring component of the study on transboundary impacts of irrigation, which was based on implementing pilot studies in MCs, was completed in 2019 with the final report published on the MRC website. For the groundwater component, the Inception Report on Sustainable Groundwater Use and Management was completed. The study on water requirement and availability for drought management The study aimed at estimating water deficits for crop areas of the LMB under different scenarios: baseline from 1984 to 2007, future scenario from 2007 to 2020 without climate change considered, and future scenario from 2020–2040 with climate change considered. The study indicated that the current irrigated agriculture faces extreme water deficits, especially in Cambodia and Thailand, and that they may increase in the future during the dry season. This study was used to inform the preparation of the DMS.

Figure 9. Outcome Evaluation Matrix

Note: The Matrix assesses outcome achievement based on output completion and the type of change that occurred – Outcome 1

Increase in knowledge and understanding. The completion of the Council Study and the 2018 SOBR involved the mobilization of significant MRC Secretariat staff and consultant resources, and extensive consultations with MCs over a three-year period (in addition to the two years during the previous planning cycle). Overall, Outcome 1 relfects an increase in awareness and knowledge among all concerned stakeholders, in the capacity of the decision makers and project planners. The Council Study knowledge base, assessment methodologies, and tools were instrumental in enabling users to learn and apply their new-found knowledge and skills in similar studies at the national and local levels. For the SOBR, the numerous regional and national meetings held with national line and implementing agencies have resulted in an increased common understanding of the current environmental and socio-economic conditions and trends in the Basin brought by development pressures and the changing climate. These meetings have helped build closer working relationships between the MRC Secretariat and the various line and implementing agencies that will benefit future cooperation and allow them to better identify and agree on evidence-based management interventions in support of a sustainable development pathway for the Basin. The various stakeholder meetings were also helpful.

The Panel of MRC Secretariat’s experts address the audience at the official launch of the 2018 Mekong State of the Basin Report at the MRC Headquarters in Vientiane, with participation by countries and partners (22 October 2019).

The inclusion of a review of conditions in the Upper Mekong Basin for the first time in the SOBR not only makes the analysis more holistic, but also creates yet another avenue to promote closer cooperation with China and Myanmar in the years to come. Internationally, the 2018 SOBR and the Council Study reports represent a comprehensive body of knowledge not only about the Mekong, one of the world’s great rivers, but also about how to conduct and implement such studies for other basins and regions. For example, in promoting the IWRM and nexus approaches to international water and river basin cooperation, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, which serves as the Secretariat for the Water Convention, has referenced the works of the MRC in a number of global reports and recommendations. This has not only contributed to the positive reputation of the MRC globally, but has also attracted attention and resources to support the MRC.

H.E. Mr Sommad Pholsena (centre), Minister of Natural Resources and Environment and MRC Council Member for Lao PDR, Dr Inthavy Akkharat (left), Acting Secretary General of the Lao National Mekong Committee Secretariat and Chairperson of the MRC Joint Committee in 2017, and Dr Pham Tuan Phan, CEO of the MRC Secretariat (right), answer questions from the public about the Council Study and the Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement during the 1st Regional Stakeholder Forum in Luang Prabang (22 and 23 February 2017).

Use in regional and national planning and decision-making At the regional level, the SOBR and the Council Study supported decision-making and project planning. The importance of the Council Study was acknowledged by the MCs, including at the highest level in the Siem Reap Declaration of the 3rd MRC Summit. The SOBR was agreed by the MRC Joint Committee, including its key findings and recommendations. The Siem Reap Declaration of the 3rd MRC Summit states that the key findings of the Council Study should be considered by Member Countries as a reference at both the policy and technical levels. This would allow to capture development opportunities and address trade-offs, benefit sharing, risks for planning and implementation of national plans and projects, and in relevant MRC work.

The 2018 SOBR and associated studies such as the Council Study were used in the development of regional strategies such as the SHDS and the SBEM. They have been referred to in key MRC activities such as the PNPCA project assessment. The findings of the Initial Studies, which were only published at the end of 2020, will be used to support the update of the MRC Flood Management Strategy into an integrated strategy for flood and drought management. Most importantly, the knowledge from the Council Study, the Initial Studies and the SOBR greatly informed the preparation of the 10-year BDS 2021–2030 and the MRC SP 2021–2025. Moreover, the BDS strategic priorities were designed and detailed in alignment with the five dimensions of the 2018 SOBR and of the MRB-IF, resulting in five strategic priorities for the Basin.

At the national level, evidence is emerging of the use of the new body of knowledge and understanding as presented in the 2018 SOBR and associated studies. In the future, evidence of their use for national planning and decision-making will increase. To date, the following are some of the early examples: • In Cambodia, there has been a re-examination of its hydropower development plans, including two planned mainstream projects, as well as an increase in electricity purchase from projects in neighbouring countries. • In Lao PDR, the Government has strengthened its water and hydropower governance. A new water law is adopted, and a new National Water and Water Resources Management Strategy is being finalized. The new law governs water use throughout the country and includes provision for environmental flows. A national coordinating and monitoring centre for hydropower operations is being established. The amended Electricity Law 2017 and the updated Policy on Sustainable Hydropower Development 2018 strengthened the planning, assessment, monitoring of major projects. • In Thailand, TNMC has been implementing the Impact Study, which adopted the approach and methodologies of the Council Study to assess transboundary impacts of mainstream HPPs on the hydrology, soil erosion, sediment, water quality, fisheries, and socio-economic conditions of eight provinces along the Mekong River in the north and northeast parts of Thailand. • In Viet Nam, Resolution No. 120/NQ-CP on Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Development of the Mekong Delta is the coordination of ministerial and provincial actions to achieve more sustainable and higher value development in the face of expected climate change impacts, including rising sea levels, increased salinity intrusion, and the risk of severe flooding. VNMC completed the Delta Study on the impact of HPPs on the Mekong Delta, which also utilized data from the MRC and MCs.

OUTCOME 2